ACUS11 KWNS 241940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241940
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...south-central South Dakota into western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241940Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe storms capable of
severe wind gusts up to 65-80 mph and large hail potentially up to
two inches is expected to increase late this afternoon through this
evening. A watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a growing cumulus field
from Ogallala north toward Merriman in western NE, in the vicinity
of a surface trough. Additional, more elevated convection is noted
along the SD-NE border, near Pine Ridge. The 18Z North Platte
sounding sampled the presence of an EML with considerable capping
for surface-based parcels. Since that observation, surface
temperatures have warmed through the 80s into lower 90s, effectively
reducing the amount of convective inhibition.

Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough
currently moving through eastern WY in conjunction with continued
daytime heating is expected locally erode the cap such that isolated thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely within the
next 1-3 hours along the surface trough and/or cool front moving
into the region from the north. The presence of steep low/mid-level
lapse rates and a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes, including
supercells with an associated risk for large hail, potentially up to
two inches and locally severe wind gusts. Latest time-lagged HRRR
and RRFS guidance suggests that a more robust damaging wind threat
could materialize this evening as storms merge into clusters, at
which point gusts up to 65-80 mph would become more likely.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9LQ_0nAv52Az4IpBmvlh3jeQ9hZfzk0E81CgWhxTqLq8f0Bugu2hfkKtW_O7ZlAUojI6z1fRr_4s8hswOvYP4Fq9fPQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...

LAT...LON 41610258 42400258 43400219 43890190 44090135 43870057
43430010 42790004 41860009 41120027 40630054 40450114
40450159 40860215 41610258

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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