ACUS11 KWNS 242229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242229
MNZ000-NDZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 242229Z - 250100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase from west to east over the
next few hours. The primary concerns will be large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed in the
next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...The latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery indicates
deepening boundary-layer cumulus along a surface front/wind shift in
parts of central ND -- immediately east-northeast of Bismarck. In
the near term, isolated convective initiation will be possible along
the wind shift, as earlier capping at the base of the EML (sampled
by the BIS 18Z sounding) continues to erode amid an increasingly
warm/unstable PBL. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the warm/moist
PBL and an elongating/mostly straight holograph (around 40-50 kt of
effective shear) will conditionally support discrete supercells
capable of producing large to very large hail and locally severe
wind gusts. However, weak large-scale forcing for ascent limits
confidence in both the coverage and evolution of this initial storm development.

Over the next few hours, increasing ascent accompanying a midlevel
wave to the north should support an increase in storm coverage along
the surface front. The aforementioned environment will promote an
increasing risk of scattered supercells capable of producing large
hail and severe wind gusts. With time and eastward extent, upscale
growth into organized clusters could pose an increasing risk of
severe wind. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ytLhrCTw7EkbT77YDt9_opAfKb-fBphV9L_dmi2_sT10RCDtRGQvgHaQvaF8lmgl_YjNuH9hSZ1PcBKYGtkLjmzi5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46190025 46590041 47090031 47979967 48629920 49099903
49169866 49209809 49129680 48739658 48309653 47729655
47199679 46629730 46229794 46039880 46049976 46190025

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)