ACUS11 KWNS 242336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242336
NEZ000-SDZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western NE into southwest SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623...

Valid 242336Z - 250100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized severe gusts will continue
into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A small supercell cluster has evolved across southern
Cherry County, with other developing storms noted farther south into west-central NE, and also farther north near the NE/SD border along
a surface trough. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer
shear will continue to be favorable for organized severe storms into
the early evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. With
convection tending to remain semi-discrete, the severe-wind threat
may tend to be localized, though favorable lapse rates will support
potential for isolated 60-75 mph gusts.

Cooler temperatures and increasing MLCINH will tend to limit the
eastward extent of the severe threat, though trends will be
monitored regarding the need for any local watch expansions through
the evening.

..Dean.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6R9fDBL591OEAw6P2256Y_whixc6-FiyJZsoDSLAx48Ubncs41I0vThsBAmWM5-W-Segr6lc0kI1cpaG65O4lUIAHdg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 40780190 41840139 42180136 42610180 42910201 43290210
43620143 43610076 42980019 42249984 41379982 40870007
40680029 40520071 40460122 40430176 40780190

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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