ACUS11 KWNS 252325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252324
KSZ000-COZ000-260100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into far western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 252324Z - 260100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat exists for severe wind and hail with ongoing
storms. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells/supercells have matured over
eastern CO over the past few hours as upslope flow of a moistened
and heated airmass has encouraged relatively robust but sparse
convective initiation. These storms are benefiting from 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates and accompanying 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, as
well as 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Given relatively limited
shear and flow, storms are expected to remain relatively sparse and
slow moving. Severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms,
but it is currently unclear how widespread severe coverage will be. Nonetheless, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-vMgy84RE42UGST_2LajhwRfifH5iAWK6booe6cB4JMu6WJRwD6krGIHAU5JBTqkvXSMP65qXui1khObCtlVu6KVP_k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37910480 38790385 39200301 39320230 39130173 38750154
38230150 37680164 37280211 37190286 37230379 37340453
37910480

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)