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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2399

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 18:55:58 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 221855
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221855
    NMZ000-AZZ000-222030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2399
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central and northeast Arizona into
    far west-central New Mexico

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 693...

    Valid 221855Z - 222030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 693 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to increase across parts of
    east-central and northeast Arizona into far west-central New Mexico
    during the next few hours. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a
    couple of tornadoes will all be possible.

    DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms
    continues within a confluence zone extending across north-central
    AZ, with transient organization/embedded rotation. Over the next few
    hours, this activity, along with additional thunderstorms developing
    along the higher terrain, will spread northeastward into
    east-central/northeast AZ into far west-central NM. Here, cloud
    breaks are supporting diurnal heating/boundary-layer destabilization
    amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints. Around 70 kt of effective shear
    (sampled by the FGZ 18Z sounding) and backed low-level winds (and
    related enhancement to low-level shear/SRH) will be favorable for
    supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail,
    severe winds gusts, and a couple of tornadoes during the next few
    hours.

    ..Weinman.. 10/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8D4gOnLQD7Gny01cl_cgGUlkSxga7lgAgUsIDtnPEjKuJm9yEKBkCYlYIXLkl1V-P5K8RMmPcSCuwcrlrzfytvfF2fM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 33311050 33771081 34191098 34591103 35311094 35881045
    35990993 35950941 35790905 35040877 33620871 33210891
    33060957 33311050

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)