ACUS11 KWNS 222017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222016
NMZ000-222115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Western/central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222016Z - 222115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind threat may extend a couple of counties
to the east and may warrant a narrow Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Convection with embedded/organized structures continues
to spread northeastward across western NM. Forcing for ascent and
vertical shear weaken gradually with eastward extent, though the 18z
ABQ sounding revealed an environment favorable for some continued
hail/wind threat east of the current Tornado Watch. An eastward
extension of the current Tornado Watch is in question given the
marginal tornado threat this far east, so a new/narrow Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be proposed shortly.

..Thompson/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5VKaL4y-Cy4O6CHuvYAG0Vzr2xuzZLjbQGuYoRYhJvE2f7ddaCh60lryZAzMaiyEqSe6-O8EYV3I4ISVpUODTkORCE8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32310736 32060810 32540802 34880746 35980700 36390652
36390602 35880583 34490641 32310736

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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