ACUS11 KWNS 222201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222201
NMZ000-AZZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Western New Mexico

Concerning...Tornado Watch 693...

Valid 222201Z - 230000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 693 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado
will be possible over parts of eastern Arizona and western New
Mexico over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level
trough over California with southwesterly diffluent flow aloft over
much of the Desert Southwest. The RAP shows a 60 to 80 knot
mid-level jet moving through western Arizona. There appears to be a
speed max at 700 mb moving through eastern Arizona, where a cluster
of strong to severe storms is ongoing. These storms are forming near
a pocket of moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range. Near the instability max, RAP forecast soundings
early this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots with long and
relatively straight hodographs. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. A tornado will also exist as low-level
shear increases over the next couple of hours. The severe threat
will move northeastward into the White Mountains of southwestern New
Mexico later this evening.

..Broyles.. 10/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5TYCFbr64OcF9p5cZpituzVNWgzpWPix9A9T68w-dE0qGHoZxbIKkOPiKqFk2FqNPQaSS0mtqaJuquHMxTLRWZYtNt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32590979 32640907 33000836 33340793 33840780 34440791
34780817 34920873 34880915 34710955 34111017 33731039
33551047 33171049 32891035 32741015 32590979

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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